The Euro zone will only finance Ireland if its people vote ‘yes’ but, as the Prime Minister told me at Prime Minister’s Questions, Britain will act as a good friend of Ireland whatever they decide in their referendum on Fiscal Union, and require the EU to respect their decision.
I previously ensured, when Parliament considered the Loans to Ireland Act, that the Treasury term sheet provided for UK financial assistance to continue whether or not Ireland stayed in the Euro.
Enda Kerry describes Ireland’s referendum as being on whether to reaffirm Ireland’s membership of the Euro.
When I commissioned a Red C poll in December 2010 across the Republic of Ireland asking if Ireland should leave the Euro and re-establish a link with sterling over a third said ‘yes’, with the strongest support being amongst younger people.
Others would presumably support leaving the Euro to set up a separate Irish currency, even if that meant inflation and an inability to borrow abroad in the near-term, although it is interesting that even 43% of Sinn Fein supporters prefer adopting sterling to staying in the Euro.
In the House of Commons debate about the Fiscal Union treaty, I discuss the three options for Ireland:
- stay in the Euro on Franco-German terms and pay back the ECB;
- print money in a new Irish currency to replace overseas borrowing; or
- negotiate arrangements to use sterling and the UK banking system
Mark, we are convinced that there is another way for Ireland, that Ireland should seek to form a new federation with the constituent parts of the existing UK, a federation of Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England. This could allow Ireland to rejoin sterling and reinforce the sterling area. We dont need to worry about the monarchy, we all love the monarchy really, deep down they are a symbol of our human weaknesses!
We could also join EFTA and enjoy a good trading relationship with Europe. This approach would help to cement the end of the trouble in Northern Ireland and give the Unionists a way out of their current cul de sac but more importantly it would allow a resolution of the mad Scottish problem, with Scotland remaining in a new but closer relationship with its closest neighbours.
Good luck.